Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Catch-22 for US in Pakistan?

America seems to be in a Catch-22 situation in Pakistan. The catch in the novel Catch-22 was bureaucratic nonsense and that has been replaced by amateurish decision making by Bush in the War of Terror. The number of bad decisions have gotten to such a high level that the catches now need to be codified with numbers. There is no stopping the mistakes even though this war effort is the biggest war US has ever waged against terrorists.

US is once again facing an awkward situation in Pakistan as the opposition parties, confident from the election results, finalize their plans to form a new government. Should Bush continue supporting Musharraf which is like going down a tunnel that has no end and hence no light, or build strong relations with the incoming government so that the War of Terror remains on track? Well, the writing on the wall wasn't too clear to start with but Bush didn't take any efforts to try to read the mood of the voters. It was widely reported that the political party supporting Musharraf would win a comfortable majority and form a government, which would be aligned to Musharraf's and hence America's goals. And hence Bush kept supporting Musharraf through the elections. But the election results were pretty disappointing sending Bush's Pakistan strategy back to the drawing boards.

This serious failure could have been completely avoided. US could have used it's machinery in Pakistan to conduct a survey before the elections. That would have helped Bush stop the 'Musharraf is our strongest ally and we stand by only him' rhetoric and US could have taken a neutral stand on the elections. That would have lightly exonerated US from its previous crimes in the eyes of Pakistanis and the public and the then opposition parties would have warmed up to Bush and US much earlier.

Now the new government has enough problems to solve at home rather than serve America's goals in their country. It will be a hard-sell for US to convince a coalition government formed from parties that won elections based on anti-Musharraf strategy, to continue supporting US in its war against terror.

On second thoughts, it may be a boon in disguise for America if it can get rid of Musharraf fast enough. The current war against terror is not going any where. It has not achieved much over last couple of years. And the new government may be as keen as US to get rid of the fundamentalists that are a big threat to Pakistan's internal security and economical stability. All US needs now is a nice way to get rid of Musharraf and get cozy with the new government.

India must be watching the current events in Pakistan with optimism. Musharraf, who attacked Kargil in Kashmir and who unequivocally supported the Kashmir terrorists, was not popular with India. He was much smarter in PR and he used every occasion with the international media to his or Pakistan's advantage. Musharraf was so convincing in his job that even today, Kashmiri terrorists are mentioned as Kashmiri separatists by international media. He was in an envious position where he was a strong ally of US in the War of Terror, even though he was a part of the reason why the war was being waged. Surprisingly India didn't say much and everybody including US conveniently looked the other way.

India will be happy to see Pakistan get rid of the frustrating Musharraf and will look forward to building good relationships with the new government. After seeing their economies grow at a healthy rate during the last 10 years, India and Pakistan both want to see their GDPs grow at the same rate in the future. The situation is very different this time and both the governments should agree that the best option for them is to solve the Kashmir problem through discussion and increase the trade between the two countries.

What would be interesting to see now as events unfold is how US will handle Musharraf (or rather how it will dump him), and how they will start working with the new government.